A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
